Monday, February 28, 2011

March Madness and my early season NCAA rankings



Orating
Drating
STPG
RPG
TOPG
Sposgame

Differential ranks
pos ranks
1
Brigham Young
115.31
85
9.6
41.7
10.1
5.08
30.31
6
1
2
Syracuse
113.55
85.46
9.7
40.9
11.5
4.4
28.09
9
4
3
Pittsburgh
123.11
92.54
6
44
11.91
4.2
30.56
5
11
4
Wisconsin
115.4
90.12
4.27
36.1
9.45
4.27
25.28
13
6
5
Cincinnati
108.16
80.7
9
38.6
11.33
4.2
27.45
11
10
6
Ohio State
117.67
82.39
8.44
36.4
11.56
3.88
35.29
4
22
7
Louisville
109.58
81.75
10.89
39.7
12.56
4.03
27.83
10
17
8
Villanova
112.19
88.4
7
40.7
11.56
4.13
23.79
15
13
9
Kentucky
115.52
92.88
6.22
41.2
10.78
4.4
22.64
22
5
10
Kansas
119.44
82.94
8.89
40.2
13.56
3.62
36.5
3
42
11
Washington
117.07
92.85
9.44
39.2
13.11
3.71
24.22
14
29
12
Connecticut
113.86
92.07
6.75
42.3
11.5
4.27
21.79
29
7
13
Washington State
108.98
82.12
8.63
34.6
11.88
3.64
26.86
12
38
14
San Diego State
113.9
91.13
7
35.8
11.27
3.8
22.77
21
25
15
Purdue
109.63
81.33
7.1
37.8
12.5
3.59
28.29
8
45
16
Texas
108.72
85.27
5.9
43.1
13.4
3.66
23.45
17
36
17
Notre Dame
114.81
95.16
3.6
41.1
10.6
4.22
19.65
36
8
18
Duke
123.08
83.45
8.7
37.9
13.5
3.45
39.63
1
63
19
Iowa State
106.02
87.37
7.91
38.5
11.18
4.15
18.65
43
12
20
Northwestern
115.83
95.71
8
31.7
10.57
3.76
20.12
34
26
21
Saint Mary's
112.44
89.1
8.4
38.9
13.4
3.53
23.35
18
52
22
Temple
105.26
83.4
7.89
36.6
12.22
3.64
21.87
28
37
23
Michigan
104.19
85.91
5
38.7
11.1
3.94
18.28
45
18
24
Richmond
111.13
89.1
6.6
34.9
11.7
3.55
22.03
25
49
25
Providence
110.79
92.62
8.08
43
13
3.93
18.17
47
19
26
George Mason
107.91
87.62
8.2
35.4
12.2
3.57
20.29
32
48
27
Arkansas
102.33
83.18
9.75
38
13.13
3.64
19.15
40
40
28
UCF
108.68
80.37
8.67
37.8
14.22
3.27
28.31
7
90
29
Southern Miss
110.48
95.34
5.13
45.4
12
4.21
15.14
61
9
30
Illinois
114.12
91.03
7.18
35.9
12.73
3.38
23.09
20
72
31
Marquette
112.24
93.22
9
37.8
13
3.6
19.02
41
43
32
Seton Hall
108.74
89.16
7
37.9
12.67
3.54
19.58
37
50
33
Texas A&M
110.76
88.44
6.8
41.1
14.1
3.4
22.33
24
70
34
St. John's
109.52
97.06
9
34
9.63
4.47
12.46
70
3
35
Stephen F. Austin
100.01
85.09
9.75
38.8
12
4.05
14.93
63
15
36
Missouri State
111.83
95.65
4.44
35.6
10.89
3.68
16.18
55
33
37
Old Dominion
109.69
94.57
7.2
42.6
13.4
3.72
15.11
62
28
38
West Virginia
116.29
97.08
4.44
39.6
12.89
3.42
19.2
39
68
39
Rutgers
102.59
90.09
9
35.2
11.56
3.82
12.51
69
24
40
Utah State
109.84
94.47
3.78
37.3
11.33
3.63
15.37
58
41
41
South Dakota State
106.65
96.37
7.11
37.6
9.33
4.79
10.28
84
2
42
Florida
113.97
92.76
7.44
36.8
13.33
3.32
21.22
31
84
43
Loyola
105.63
93.64
6.64
36.4
11
3.91
11.99
75
20
44
Missouri
112.4
94.11
9.9
36.3
13.5
3.42
18.29
44
67
45
Cleveland State
107.61
91.33
7.92
36.3
12.58
3.52
16.28
54
54
46
Colorado
112.62
100.69
8.63
34
11.13
3.83
11.93
76
23
47
Butler
109.26
97.09
6.44
36.4
11.56
3.71
12.17
73
30
48
Baylor
111.65
74.11
8.43
42.1
16.71
3.02
37.54
2
148
49
Kansas State
108.98
86.57
7.8
42.4
16
3.14
22.4
23
118
50
Drexel
102.79
88.19
4.63
43.9
13.88
3.5
14.61
64
57
51
Boston College
118.29
103.08
5.4
30.8
10.6
3.42
15.21
59
69
52
Maryland
108.76
89.02
6.64
41.8
15.18
3.19
19.74
35
106
53
Georgia Tech
102.2
93.26
10.67
37.4
12.89
3.73
8.95
90
27
54
Virginia Commonwealth
108.11
99.22
9.33
34.8
12
3.68
8.9
91
32
55
Arizona
116.12
92.93
6.09
35.1
13.55
3.04
23.19
19
144
56
Mississippi State
106.18
98.29
5.33
38.9
12
3.69
7.89
95
31
57
UNLV
113.67
91.66
8.55
35.3
14.36
3.05
22.01
26
138
58
Mississippi
114.69
102.62
4.88
35.8
11.88
3.42
12.08
74
66
59
North Carolina
110.47
93.64
6.1
42.1
15.1
3.19
16.83
50
105
60
Minnesota
109.9
96.08
9.09
41.1
15
3.35
13.82
67
80
61
UAB
106.09
94.93
4.67
36.1
11.89
3.43
11.16
78
65
62
North Carolina State
108.02
100.35
6.78
38.4
12.33
3.66
7.67
98
35
63
South Carolina
101.92
87.32
8.75
43.3
15.75
3.3
14.6
65
86
64
Hampton
88.73
82.59
7.78
35.2
11
3.91
6.14
109
21














Early in the season I crunched the number on the best teams in college basketball. I slightly modified ideas from Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver. I used Offensive Rating , Defensive rating and something I called standard possessions gained.
The difference between college basketball and the NBA is that the game is shorter, so this means that marginal possessions advantages gained are more difficult to notice. Over longer samples you tend to see it because the team that rebounds, steals, and doesn’t turnover the ball will do better in a longer game than a shorter one. So I weighted possessions gained as being 40% less important than offensive and defensive rating.
The current coaches rankings are here.

I’ll update this with the current data before March Madness so you can use it to fill out your office poll.

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