Sunday, March 3, 2013

Be Three For Awhile

We sing songs
of animals and dinos
And make up sounds
for giraffes and rhinos
Though you want to babel on the phone
Put pasta in a pot
and boil it on the stove

You'll get your chance
at the grown up dance
Backwards though--we never go

Just be three for awhile
Just be three for awhile...

We play games for fun
like hide and seek
You spot my feet
sticking out beneath the sheets
Though you sit up by the wheel
and practice driving
where you feel

You'll get your chance
at the grown up dance
Backwards though--we never go

Just be three for awhile
Just be three for awhile...


Charlotte at Two

Charlotte at One

Charlotte Jane

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Charlotte at Two

Two's a crayon in your hand
drawn on paper and then
It's a tent on the floor
a half eaten apple core

Just a game of pretend
hear the lion roar
Two is dancing
and asking for more

One is all gone
Two is just one more
Learning patience
like a dog by the door

Two is movies and lists
Annie, Pippi, Spy Kids
Picking up the remote
hearing Elmo's song notes

Just a game of pretend
making ducks quack
Two is climbing for rides
up on daddy's back

One is all gone
Two is just one more
Learning yes and no
Reading Go Dog Go

Next year, maybe thank you and please
Learning--waiting--counting till three

Charlotte at 1

    Charlotte Jane

Sunday, January 1, 2012

My Inner Sponge


UPDATE: 1/1/2011 Same trimester and same craving. The mysterious "sea sponge" craving has resurfaced two years later(the baby is due in early march). Here's what happened last time:

My wife has had an unusual craving recently which coincided directly with the beginning of her third trimester of pregnancy. She has had an intense urge to drink water using a sea sponge as a filter. As far as pregnancy cravings go this is one of the more unusual ones, however a simple Google search revealed that the urge to chewing on sea sponges is actually one a small population of people around the globe shares.

There are plenty of potential reasons why she may be craving sponges, but none of them mattered as we headed out in search of a place that sells sea sponges. Emma had been chewing on synthetic sponges for a few weeks but began to crave the real ones. "We'll find one" my wife assured me as we headed out in search of the elusive sea sponge. Being that we live in Minnesota I was not optimistic that we would, but America has instilled in my wife the sense that anything is out there for purchase, you just have to look hard enough. My first bright idea was to stop and Wal-Mart and Target. They have everything....everything but real sea sponges of course. Damn. "The pet store, they sell fish supplies, I'll bet they have sponges." I said. Emma reluctantly came in and looked around. We found lots of coral and things to make a fish tank look good except of course sea sponges. "Let me have the keys," she said. "You don't think I can find a sea sponge." I replied. "It's not that, I just want to wander." she said as she hopped into the drivers side. She seemed uncertain of exactly what direction she wanted to go, but suddenly took a turn east. We were driving through Apple Valley, a local city with numerous big box stores and mini mall shops. Suddenly she took a left, "There, there's where we'll find my sponge." She was heading toward Bed, Bath, and Beyond. "It's here I can feel it." she said to me as we parked and headed inside. She seemed to know exactly where she was going and went directly to the section where she found her real sea sponge for $14.99. I had to laugh at the fact that we had really found one, and we had done so by wandering.
Now that she's had it for a week the craving has been satisfied and perhaps because of the sea sponge and perhaps coincidentally the baby has undergone a huge growth spurt this past weekend. I don't know why. I also don't know the exact reasons for the craving. Some ideas include:
1.Sponges have medicinal potential due to the presence in sponges themselves or their microbial symbionts of chemicals that may be used to control viruses, bacteria, tumors and fungi

2. The sponge is consumed for calcium as Calcerous sponges are made of calcium carbonate

3. The sponges is used to filter water as early Europeans used soft sponges for portable drinking utensils and municipal water filters

4. 1,2, 3 are all wrong and I have no idea why my wife craved sea sponges

I tend to think 3 is the most likely and that perhaps the craving is a memory of a past strategic use(she is of European ancestry).

Our lives at many moments can become occupied by cravings, simple ones for sea sponges, or more complex. The strange thing is we live most of our lives in ignorance. We seek something out on a whim without knowing the "why" or the "how". We are only given the signal by our bodies, that may have a purpose and may not. My inner sponge is a representation of my survival through ignorance. Maybe it's better I don't know, as I'm not needed for chemical reactions anyway. I'd probably mess the whole thing up like my high school chemistry experiments(and in the body you can't just screw up and fudge the numbers at the end).

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Changes in American eating habits from 1980 to 2009

I'm learning the statistical programming language R at the moment. My goal is develop a second career for myself as a statistician for medical studies. In any case one of the practice data sets I've been working with documents the changes in American eating habits since 1980. The data comes from the 2009 Statistical Abstract of the United States.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

What will the Timberwolves look like in 2012

The 2011 NBA Season is passed. Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, Jason Kidd, and the Mavericks proved they were the Big 3 and the Dallas Mavericks took home the championship in 2011. The 2012 season is delayed and like all NBA fans I'm eagerly awaiting tipoffs and poster jams, although I also side with what the players are doing. I'd much rather see them getting the money than the Scrooge Mcduck owners. The delay is especially disappointing because the Timberwolves look to be a much different team this year adding Ricky Rubio, Derrick Williams and head coach Rick Adelman. As I don't have anything but speculation to add on when the lockout will end I wanted to look back and ahead and take a look at last year and consider; Was Rambis a bad head coach? How was he bad and how will Rick Adelman be different? Will the 2012 Timberwolves be much better?

Kurt Rambis inherited a very young team constructed by David Kahn. Here are histograms showing the break down of Minnestoa Timberwolves' players Defensive Rating(Left) Offensive Rating(Right) .

Offensive and Defensive Ratings are closely related to points per possession and track how well players generate offense and play defense.

Interestingly the Minnesota Timberwolves team average Defensive Rating was 111 and team Offensive rating was around 106(marked with a X on the chart). Defensively the Timberwolves team defense allowed the rating of the majority of their players. Offensively the wolves scored at a level that only could have been obtained being carried by a minority of the players. This makes sense because when you're on offense your team decides who to go to and shoot the ball, while on defense you don't have this luxury. The other team is going to go to where you are weak(if they are any good). So the question came to me could Kurt Rambis ever have fielded a team with 5 good defenders?

Looking at the answer is no. The Wolves had only 4 players at any given time that posted above average defensive ratings(Darko Milicic, Kevin Love, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos) early in the year and Brewer and Koufos were swapped for Anthony Randolph late in the year. So at point guard, small forward and often shooting guard no matter what Kurt Rambis did he'd always be putting a defense with holes on the floor. Often he'd play Corey Brewer at shooting guard to try and compensate but I believe this was a mistake. Why? While I have yet to crunch all the data I have a working idea(based on preliminary data) that it takes 5 to defend and if you can't put out 5 above average defenders on the floor its better to just go with the best offensive player, which brings me to my second point.

I analyzed data from to answer the question: What was most likely to get you the most playing time for the Timberwolves under the Rambis and David Kahn regime? I looked at 9 different stats

  • Offensive Rating(ORtg)
  • Defensive Rating(DRtg)
  • Salary(Sal)
  • Effective Field Goal Percentage(eFG)
  • Total Rebounds(TRB))
  • Assists(AST)
  • Steals(STL)
  • Blocks(BLK)
  • Turnovers(TOV)

I did some fancy stat stuff in R that you can mostly ignore while still understanding the conclusions of the analysis. Basically I found which of these stats mattered in a model where A+B = Minutes Played and A and B were these 9 factors. Ignore everything but the stats with '*'

What most influences minutes played and how(Table 1)

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -15894.01 48224.03 -0.330 0.7514
ORtg -18.94 42.75 -0.443 0.6712
DRtg 141.99 415.42 0.342 0.7425
Sal 353.80 140.70 2.515 0.0401 *
eFG. 3494.34 5139.56 0.680 0.5184
TRB. 94.35 169.76 0.556 0.5957
AST. 41.65 34.62 1.203 0.2680
STL. 348.58 890.94 0.391 0.7073
BLK. 67.10 264.96 0.253 0.8073
TOV. -95.24 72.43 -1.315 0.2299

ANOVA-Is the table 1 model reliable? (Table 2)

Response: MP
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
ORtg 1 3276048 3276048 9.5740 0.01746 *
DRtg 1 223150 223150 0.6521 0.44592
Sal 1 3144386 3144386 9.1892 0.01908 *
eFG. 1 482732 482732 1.4107 0.27367
TRB. 1 4168 4168 0.0122 0.91521
AST. 1 91002 91002 0.2659 0.62195
STL. 1 1033 1033 0.0030 0.95773
BLK. 1 24972 24972 0.0730 0.79484
TOV. 1 591711 591711 1.7292 0.22995
Residuals 7 2395275 342182

Ok, good did you ignore everything but the stats with '*' ? If you didn't let me summarize the tables. The first one says that only one of the 9 factors was likely to get you playing time : Salary. So what that means is that the amount minutes a player played on the Minnesota Timberwolves was mostly influenced by the salary he signed on his contract. This means that the problem with the lineup was either

  • A. Kurt Rambis was unable to bench highly paid players that performed badly
  • B. Kurt Rambis believed the highly paid players played well

All this goes back to a point I'd like to make, setting players salaries(and relative status on the team) is probably more important than having the best coach. Who set the salaries for the Minnesota Timberwolves? Mostly David Kahn but it wasn't all his doing, as many of the contracts were inherited or are set by the rule of the league(like rookie contracts). Kurt Rambis it seems did not have the power to overcome the status of the players that was pre-set. But if you're reading this and think Kurt Rambis has been vindicated as a head coach, you're only partially right. Take a look at the second table. There's a little * next to ORTG which means that it's likely that Offensive Rating in the first table is likely to be an accurate result. Here's where Kurt Rambis vindication goes away: the model says that the higher the offensive rating the LESS likely you were to get minutes on the Timberwolves. Here's my thoughts on why this is.
Rambis came from the Lakers where he was in charge of defense. When he came to the Wolves he had the sense that 'defense' wins(and it can) although in the Wolves case it was impossible to put an above average defense on the floor with the Timberwolves players in 2011. So in the end Rambis appears to be bad at coaching an offense. This was disguised while he was assistant coach with the Lakers because I suspect he had little say on offensive matters. Is Rambis a good defensive coach? Quite possibly, but it's hard to tell with the Timberwolves players. Rambis was fired and the Timberwolves hired veteran coach Rick Adelman.

Rick Adelman comes to the Timberwolves from the Houston Rockets where he led them to a .500 or over records in all his seasons. I asked the same questions about Rick Adelman that I did of Kurt Rambis. What were significant factors in getting you minutes on the Houston Rockets in 2011? Below are the models.Again players are evaluated on

  • Offensive Rating(ORtg)
  • Defensive Rating(DRtg)
  • Salary(Sal)
  • Effective Field Goal Percentage(eFG)
  • Total Rebounds(TRB))
  • Assists(AST)
  • Steals(STL)
  • Blocks(BLK)
  • Turnovers(TOV)

Ignore everything but the stats with '*'

What most influences minutes played and how (Table 3)

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 28542.291 34190.417 0.835 0.423
eFG. 2681.085 7133.429 0.376 0.715
TRB. -102.565 120.497 -0.851 0.415
AST. 17.138 39.575 0.433 0.674
STL. -534.994 670.391 -0.798 0.443
BLK. -227.702 256.435 -0.888 0.395
TOV. -77.963 78.400 -0.994 0.343
ORtg 8.044 46.585 0.173 0.866
DRtg -249.472 294.233 -0.848 0.416
SAL 146.081 76.973 1.898 0.087 *
Multiple R-squared: 0.6227, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2832

ANOVA(Table 4)

Response: MP
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
eFG. 1 3754126 3754126 5.8502 0.03614 *
TRB. 1 1079287 1079287 1.6819 0.22380
AST. 1 75663 75663 0.1179 0.73842
STL. 1 52118 52118 0.0812 0.78147
BLK. 1 2528 2528 0.0039 0.95119
TOV. 1 2188235 2188235 3.4100 0.09457 *
ORtg 1 247285 247285 0.3854 0.54864
DRtg 1 881875 881875 1.3743 0.26825
SAL 1 2311247 2311247 3.6017 0.08693 *
Residuals 10 6417089 641709

Remember, Ignore everything but the stats with a '*' . Ok, so again in table 1 we find that Salary was a significant factor for getting mintues. Although on the Houston Rockets in 2011 Rick Adelman appears a little less likely than Rambis to be bound by salary(.08 vs .04). Moving on to the second table we find some differences of coaching style. Both Effective field goal percentage(eFG) and turnovers were significant factors along with salary in determining playing time. Basically Rick Adelman is more likely to play players with a high shooting percentage and bench players who turn the ball over. So who is likely to benefit from this change of coaching style and whose minutes are most likely to change under Rick Adelman?

The table below ranks the Wolves players according to Adelmans style(based on eFG and low turnovers) and Rambis based on who gets paid the most or is most trumped up by his General Manager(Wes Johnson)

My prediction is the hiring of Rick Adelman bodes well for Martell Webster and Derrick Williams and creates a problem about playing time between Michael Beasley and Derrick Williams. In fact I suspect that a BIG part of the reason Adelman signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves for 2012-2016 seasons was that Houston was really high on Derrick Williams. If you do a search for college players that posted the best NCAA effective field goal percentage with win shares over 8 in the last 10 years here are the top 12 names on the list :

Why did Adelman come to the Timberwolves? The 2012 Timberwovles have 3 of the top 12 players for Adelmans favorite player attribute. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Rick Adelman starts a lineup of Ricky Rubio at point guard, Martell Webster at shooting guard, Michael Beasley at small forward, Derrick Williams at Power Forward, and Kevin Love at Center. What do you think the 2012 Minnesota Timberwolves lineup will be?

Thursday, September 1, 2011

NBA lockout thoughts: Stern and Fisher analysis

I follow the news from the NBA lockout once in while and caught two interesting statement's from both the leaders of the players and owners David Stern and Derek Fisher.

 Worried anyone?


"It was a very engaging meeting," said union president Derek Fisher of the Los Angeles Lakers. "We didn't waste a lot of time at all. ... We, kind of as a group, agreed to really continue just focusing on getting the deal done and really try to stay away from the semantics and the verbal jabs, the back-and-forth, and really try to remain focused on the deal points."

We know what we're holding and we know what you're holding.

Neither side would commit Wednesday to a deadline for getting a deal this time that would preserve the entire 2011-12 schedule. Working up to or soon after Labor Day would seem to be vital -- but no one said that, either. "There is clearly enough time," Stern said. "We don't have any deadlines in mind. We just have meetings in mind and discussions in mind." Said Fisher: "We have not tried to set a ... particular date and increase the urgency that's already there. I don't think either side feels that that's needed. There's enough pressure as there is." What's a realistic turnaround time from handshake agreement on a new CBA to NBA basketball in one form or another? "Guys are continuing to work out and train, and prepare themselves for the season to start at any time," Fisher said. "Players are physically and mentally prepared to handle [any] circumstances."

In the first statement Derek Fisher uses the qualifier "kind of" when describing the players and owners as a group. This tells me that the group is fractured. I think it means the players have agreed to focus on getting a deal done(the owners haven't). The owners are willing to wait it out. Put another way, the median NBA owner(15 out 30) is willing to wait longer than the median NBA player. Looking at the second statement Derek Fisher uses an extended contraction "We have not" when talking about whether they have set a deadline for getting a deal done. This tells me that the players have discussed a date where they'll accept a lower offer(while of course they haven't discussed this with owners).

My prediction is the NBA season will start after a few months of lockout with players taking a bad deal because most of them aren't prepared to go a whole season without basketball. Right now the players should think about sending Derek Fisher to acting class because to anyone observant enough Fisher is giving away their position. Right now I feel the NBA owners win this fight.

This could change if the players Union was to focus and pool it's savings  to ensure that it maintains a majority of the players committed to going a whole year without basketball and aggressively pursuing contracts in other leagues(and also making sure Derek Fisher rehearses his public statements).

Tuesday, July 26, 2011