March Madness and my early season NCAA rankings

		Orating	Drating	STPG	RPG	TOPG	Sposgame		Differential ranks	pos ranks
1	Brigham Young	115.31	85	9.6	41.7	10.1	5.08	30.31	6	1
2	Syracuse	113.55	85.46	9.7	40.9	11.5	4.4	28.09	9	4
3	Pittsburgh	123.11	92.54	6	44	11.91	4.2	30.56	5	11
4	Wisconsin	115.4	90.12	4.27	36.1	9.45	4.27	25.28	13	6
5	Cincinnati	108.16	80.7	9	38.6	11.33	4.2	27.45	11	10
6	Ohio State	117.67	82.39	8.44	36.4	11.56	3.88	35.29	4	22
7	Louisville	109.58	81.75	10.89	39.7	12.56	4.03	27.83	10	17
8	Villanova	112.19	88.4	7	40.7	11.56	4.13	23.79	15	13
9	Kentucky	115.52	92.88	6.22	41.2	10.78	4.4	22.64	22	5
10	Kansas	119.44	82.94	8.89	40.2	13.56	3.62	36.5	3	42
11	Washington	117.07	92.85	9.44	39.2	13.11	3.71	24.22	14	29
12	Connecticut	113.86	92.07	6.75	42.3	11.5	4.27	21.79	29	7
13	Washington State	108.98	82.12	8.63	34.6	11.88	3.64	26.86	12	38
14	San Diego State	113.9	91.13	7	35.8	11.27	3.8	22.77	21	25
15	Purdue	109.63	81.33	7.1	37.8	12.5	3.59	28.29	8	45
16	Texas	108.72	85.27	5.9	43.1	13.4	3.66	23.45	17	36
17	Notre Dame	114.81	95.16	3.6	41.1	10.6	4.22	19.65	36	8
18	Duke	123.08	83.45	8.7	37.9	13.5	3.45	39.63	1	63
19	Iowa State	106.02	87.37	7.91	38.5	11.18	4.15	18.65	43	12
20	Northwestern	115.83	95.71	8	31.7	10.57	3.76	20.12	34	26
21	Saint Mary's	112.44	89.1	8.4	38.9	13.4	3.53	23.35	18	52
22	Temple	105.26	83.4	7.89	36.6	12.22	3.64	21.87	28	37
23	Michigan	104.19	85.91	5	38.7	11.1	3.94	18.28	45	18
24	Richmond	111.13	89.1	6.6	34.9	11.7	3.55	22.03	25	49
25	Providence	110.79	92.62	8.08	43	13	3.93	18.17	47	19
26	George Mason	107.91	87.62	8.2	35.4	12.2	3.57	20.29	32	48
27	Arkansas	102.33	83.18	9.75	38	13.13	3.64	19.15	40	40
28	UCF	108.68	80.37	8.67	37.8	14.22	3.27	28.31	7	90
29	Southern Miss	110.48	95.34	5.13	45.4	12	4.21	15.14	61	9
30	Illinois	114.12	91.03	7.18	35.9	12.73	3.38	23.09	20	72
31	Marquette	112.24	93.22	9	37.8	13	3.6	19.02	41	43
32	Seton Hall	108.74	89.16	7	37.9	12.67	3.54	19.58	37	50
33	Texas A&M	110.76	88.44	6.8	41.1	14.1	3.4	22.33	24	70
34	St. John's	109.52	97.06	9	34	9.63	4.47	12.46	70	3
35	Stephen F. Austin	100.01	85.09	9.75	38.8	12	4.05	14.93	63	15
36	Missouri State	111.83	95.65	4.44	35.6	10.89	3.68	16.18	55	33
37	Old Dominion	109.69	94.57	7.2	42.6	13.4	3.72	15.11	62	28
38	West Virginia	116.29	97.08	4.44	39.6	12.89	3.42	19.2	39	68
39	Rutgers	102.59	90.09	9	35.2	11.56	3.82	12.51	69	24
40	Utah State	109.84	94.47	3.78	37.3	11.33	3.63	15.37	58	41
41	South Dakota State	106.65	96.37	7.11	37.6	9.33	4.79	10.28	84	2
42	Florida	113.97	92.76	7.44	36.8	13.33	3.32	21.22	31	84
43	Loyola	105.63	93.64	6.64	36.4	11	3.91	11.99	75	20
44	Missouri	112.4	94.11	9.9	36.3	13.5	3.42	18.29	44	67
45	Cleveland State	107.61	91.33	7.92	36.3	12.58	3.52	16.28	54	54
46	Colorado	112.62	100.69	8.63	34	11.13	3.83	11.93	76	23
47	Butler	109.26	97.09	6.44	36.4	11.56	3.71	12.17	73	30
48	Baylor	111.65	74.11	8.43	42.1	16.71	3.02	37.54	2	148
49	Kansas State	108.98	86.57	7.8	42.4	16	3.14	22.4	23	118
50	Drexel	102.79	88.19	4.63	43.9	13.88	3.5	14.61	64	57
51	Boston College	118.29	103.08	5.4	30.8	10.6	3.42	15.21	59	69
52	Maryland	108.76	89.02	6.64	41.8	15.18	3.19	19.74	35	106
53	Georgia Tech	102.2	93.26	10.67	37.4	12.89	3.73	8.95	90	27
54	Virginia Commonwealth	108.11	99.22	9.33	34.8	12	3.68	8.9	91	32
55	Arizona	116.12	92.93	6.09	35.1	13.55	3.04	23.19	19	144
56	Mississippi State	106.18	98.29	5.33	38.9	12	3.69	7.89	95	31
57	UNLV	113.67	91.66	8.55	35.3	14.36	3.05	22.01	26	138
58	Mississippi	114.69	102.62	4.88	35.8	11.88	3.42	12.08	74	66
59	North Carolina	110.47	93.64	6.1	42.1	15.1	3.19	16.83	50	105
60	Minnesota	109.9	96.08	9.09	41.1	15	3.35	13.82	67	80
61	UAB	106.09	94.93	4.67	36.1	11.89	3.43	11.16	78	65
62	North Carolina State	108.02	100.35	6.78	38.4	12.33	3.66	7.67	98	35
63	South Carolina	101.92	87.32	8.75	43.3	15.75	3.3	14.6	65	86
64	Hampton	88.73	82.59	7.78	35.2	11	3.91	6.14	109	21

Early in the season I crunched the number on the best teams in college basketball. I slightly modified ideas from Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver. I used Offensive Rating , Defensive rating and something I called standard possessions gained.

The difference between college basketball and the NBA is that the game is shorter, so this means that marginal possessions advantages gained are more difficult to notice. Over longer samples you tend to see it because the team that rebounds, steals, and doesn’t turnover the ball will do better in a longer game than a shorter one. So I weighted possessions gained as being 40% less important than offensive and defensive rating.

The current coaches rankings are here.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/basketball/ncaa/men/polls/#ixzz1FFfMfhSe

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

I’ll update this with the current data before March Madness so you can use it to fill out your office poll.