NBA lockout thoughts: Stern and Fisher analysis

I follow the news from the NBA lockout once in while and caught two interesting statement's from both the leaders of the players and owners David Stern and Derek Fisher.

 Worried anyone?

 

"It was a very engaging meeting," said union president Derek Fisher of the Los Angeles Lakers. "We didn't waste a lot of time at all. ... We, kind of as a group, agreed to really continue just focusing on getting the deal done and really try to stay away from the semantics and the verbal jabs, the back-and-forth, and really try to remain focused on the deal points." NBA.com

We know what we're holding and we know what you're holding.

Neither side would commit Wednesday to a deadline for getting a deal this time that would preserve the entire 2011-12 schedule. Working up to or soon after Labor Day would seem to be vital -- but no one said that, either. "There is clearly enough time," Stern said. "We don't have any deadlines in mind. We just have meetings in mind and discussions in mind." Said Fisher: "We have not tried to set a ... particular date and increase the urgency that's already there. I don't think either side feels that that's needed. There's enough pressure as there is." What's a realistic turnaround time from handshake agreement on a new CBA to NBA basketball in one form or another? "Guys are continuing to work out and train, and prepare themselves for the season to start at any time," Fisher said. "Players are physically and mentally prepared to handle [any] circumstances." NBA.com

In the first statement Derek Fisher uses the qualifier "kind of" when describing the players and owners as a group. This tells me that the group is fractured. I think it means the players have agreed to focus on getting a deal done(the owners haven't). The owners are willing to wait it out. Put another way, the median NBA owner(15 out 30) is willing to wait longer than the median NBA player. Looking at the second statement Derek Fisher uses an extended contraction "We have not" when talking about whether they have set a deadline for getting a deal done. This tells me that the players have discussed a date where they'll accept a lower offer(while of course they haven't discussed this with owners).

My prediction is the NBA season will start after a few months of lockout with players taking a bad deal because most of them aren't prepared to go a whole season without basketball. Right now the players should think about sending Derek Fisher to acting class because to anyone observant enough Fisher is giving away their position. Right now I feel the NBA owners win this fight.

This could change if the players Union was to focus and pool it's savings  to ensure that it maintains a majority of the players committed to going a whole year without basketball and aggressively pursuing contracts in other leagues(and also making sure Derek Fisher rehearses his public statements).

World According to Americans

Oldie but goodie.

Defending Taubes against a Skeptic

There was a story on NPR's The Story last week about Bernadette Lacy, a woman from Washington D.C. working forty plus hour weeks creating stress and ill health for her body(this was before the recession). Feeling stressed and unhealthy her doctor tells her to cut her hours which she does. This has the side effect of decreasing her bank account. And, when she tries to get back into the workforce she's not the same vibrant employee she was before. What else could her doctor have recommended? Here's a similar situation where I'll try to describe a better option.

I read a poorly conceived review of Gary Taubes Why We Get Fat in the June 2011 Skeptic magazine by Harriet Hall, M.D. A few thought experiments and the database I'm working on containing the math of the calorie and insulin relationship show Gary's book to be on the right track and her to be using an odd map of the world.

One notion Harriet Hall expressed was that some people are predisposed to being overweight because they store calories more efficiently than the rest of the population. Looking at the statistics from my database (Link1, link2 ) and an understanding of insulin explains why Gary's on the right track and Harriet Hall has embraced a bad scientific idea. 

            Gary Taubes argues that the reason that Americans are overweight is because we overstimulate insulin release eating carbohydrate . We eat too much carbohydrate because in the 1950's researcher Ancel Keys from the the University of Minnesota argued that the reason that we get fat is that we had too much saturated fat and cholesterol in our diets and since then this idea idea has ruled nutrition science, despite evidence to the contrary. 

            Getting back to Harriet Hall's review if I for example am efficient at storing calories then I don't need many calories to conduct my daily life like running with my Jack Russell Terrier Kirby and writing blog posts and poker articles. Carrying an efficient fat storage idea out to conclusion means that people who have this capability shouldn't need many fat cells in total to meet their energy costs or fat storage needs, so instead of getting fat, someone who “stores fat efficiently” should be thin. Carbohydrate foods that Taubes talks about like rice, corn and wheat stimulate the highest percentage of insulin of any food, and contain the least amount of energy according to my database.

           My hypothesis, slightly modified from Taubes, is based on the data and is that people who are fat have cells that extract very few calories from the food they eat(for starters by eating too many carbs) and also have the same expenses(or greater) than the average person and this also comes along with a larger insulin release. The expenses are organs,gut, brain, muscles, etc. They require energy to run. If, as I hypothesize, they earn very few calories per cell from food but have the same expenses as an average weight person they need more cells to cover the same costs(they inflate). Eating a carb heavy diet increases the frequency of the number of cells you need because carbohydrate foods in comparison to foods like meat gives your body a low return in comparison to its visual size(and a human gut is only so big). The effect experienced by the majority of people who are overweight is a low energy return on every cell and their fat storage too has a low amount of energy given their size. So they need larger populations of all types of cells(fat included) to maintain the same energy level. Imagine a similar situation which is currently being experienced by most American workers is that they need to work more hours to cover the same costs as they did years before. The same thing happens in a body consuming too many carbs.

            Getting back to bad doctors advice, what happens when you tell someone with a lower wage to cut time from work? They don't produce enough to cover their costs creating debt. What would happen (hypothetically) to someone who earns a low amount of energy per cell if you put them on a low calorie diet? They would feel an immense hunger very frequently. When they got back on a normal diet they would have to eat in even higher volume to payback the debt.

            What is the solution? You need to come up with a system of selection, specific to the person and environment that selects for efficiency relative to resources. Hmm, if only there was someone out there who came up with such a system?

*cough* Art DeVany *cough* Doug McGuff, and all the other great Paleo writers and thinkers out there.

Do you want to place the body in your care under stress? If it's already the situation cutting calories is not the answer, but neither is continuing the status-quo.

Is the LA times article about the sale of full tilt true?

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-online-poker-20110701,0,6054543.story

The LA times reports that Full Tilt has been sold to european investors which could lead to to a payback of US player funds. Also reported is the news that poker pro Phil Ivey will be dropping his lawsuit as he believes the company is taking the right steps to payback players. Many in the poker community are wondering is the article true?

The author of the story is the same author that wrote the article about poker player Chris Fargis joining a Wall Street Firm. It seems likely that he would have been contacted with this information due to this prior article.

The first portion of  Full Tilt to be sold to European investors is vague. But, this is because the source of information, full tilt's attorney's, wish to remain anonymous. The later portion of the article quotes Phil Ivey's attorney and I find no signs of deception.

The early article vagueness is consistent with Full Tilt's attorney source and the later portion contains no signs of deception. My read is that Phil Ivey is withdrawing his suit making me extremely confident that he thinks Full Tilt is going to pay the players back. I  trust the article because I would always trust a read that Phil Ivey makes.

Innumeracy and Insulin

      Innumeracy is the inability to deal with a way of representing numbers. For instance doctors often come to different conclusions when test results are presented to them as percents or natural frequencies(like 1 out of 2 versus saying 50%). However in my case presenting  myself with the natural frequency proved to block my reasoning while changing to percentages made ideas clearer.

       Gary Taubes in his excellent book Good Calories, Bad Calories argued that the reason that Americans are overweight is because we release insulin throughout our body, and sometimes this release is overstimulated. The reason it is overstimulated, Taubes argues, is that we eat too much carbohydrate in our diet. We eat too much carbohydrate because in the 1950's researcher Ancel Keys from the the University of Minnesota argued that the reason that we get fat is that we had too much saturated fat and cholesterol in our diets and since then this idea idea has ruled nutrition science, despite evidence to the contrary. Taubes went to the University of Minnesota to follow up on a study which was supposedly being conducted only to be told that it was discontinued because “they didn't like the results they were getting.”

          I'm at my local supermarket buying beef when for some unknown reason I start converting the energy insulin ratio of corn based foods into percentages. I buy the 80/20 and rush home to toss it in the freezer. I head to my computer to pull out the Glycemic Load database I made and start converting the corn based products to what I call Insulin %. 

	Energy insulin ratio 1calorie to GL/g of	Insulin %
Cornflakes (Kellogg's, MI, USA)	3.28	23.00%
CornflakesTM (Kellogg's Inc., Canada)	4.95	17.00%
Corn ChexTM (Nabisco Brands Ltd., Canada)9	5.24	16.00%
50 g portion (dextrose)5	3.89	20.00%
Cornflakes, high-fiber (Presidents Choice,	6.33	14.00%
Corn BranTM (Quaker Oats Co. of Canada,	7.02	12.00%
Taco shells, cornmeal-based, baked (Old El Paso	8.88	10.00%
Corn chips, NachipsTM	11.62	8.00%
Average percentage		15.00%

Range of percentage 8%-23%

Walking through the store the beef I find typically ranges from 93/7 to 80/20. The fat % of the animals and the insulin % of the foods are strikingly similar and the minimum and maximum ranges are very close. Too much so to not investigate furthur. Are cows acting as an insulin buffer? They are releasing the insulin and storing fat based on their pancreas while by the time it gets to me that has already been done. I'm currently trying to dig up some data on what % Americans are overweight by in relationship to their normal weight or height. If anyone knows of reliable data could you post a link in the comments?

Of course I also know there's different kinds of beef like 

U.S. Prime - Highest in quality and intramuscular fat, limited supply. Currently, about 2.9% of carcasses grade as Prime
U.S. Choice - High quality, widely available in food service industry and retail markets. Choice carcasses are 53.7% of the fed cattle total. The difference between Choice and Prime is largely due to the fat content in the beef. Prime typically has a higher fat content (more and well distributed intramuscular "marbling") than Choice

What I'm trying to answer are these questions: Is human body fat storage a simple system of creating fat cells in ratio to the insulin released from the highest insulin release during any given meal?

Can the dietary promotion of an insulin % reliably predict your body fat %?

PS while looking for a simpler word than promotion or stimulation to describe insulin release I found these synonyms

incentive, incitement, invigoration, refreshment

Related posts

http://positivelyblackswan.blogspot.com/2011/01/glycemic-load-per-calorie-comparison.html

June article published

Here's a link to my June poker article.

Summary: Can statistics describe the art of no-limit hold'em? Playing big bet poker brings out the variable of the big bet versus playing limit. There are three things that players do in big bet games when making bets of variable sizes. Some bet a lot on small bets to improve their "image" and then bluff rarely on large bets. Others treat small and large bets the same way. Others develop a tight reputation by not betting very frequently but trying to bluff on large bets. I break down how to use stats to detect each type of player online and also take you through some hands where I used color,total aggression rank, and betting volume to detect deception at the tables.

Also here's a good read about the Full Tilt situation


http://www.pokercurious.com/blogs/zimba/full-tilt-poker-the-60-million-cost-of-business/

As suspected Full Tilt is operating to payback.

Are Full Tilt players going to get their money?

On a recent radio show poker player Mike Matusow said that he is certain that Full Tilt's U.S. players "will get paid" after over a month of hearing nothing post black Friday. 

"I am not Joe Sebok. I am completely sure," Matusow said. He further stated "legal reasons" prevented him from saying more.

Is Mike Matusow telling the truth?

Matusow went on Quadjacks.com's radio May 17, and used his appearance to say players' funds are safe with the site, despite rumors to the contrary.

 Matusow also claimed fellow Full Tilt pros were advised not to speak out on the case.

"If their lawyers have advised them not to speak out, then that's how it is. They know what they are doing," he said.

Matusow also used the occasion to blast Party Poker pro and PokerNews.com owner Tony G, who himself appeared on the QuadJacks show earlier this week.

Tony G asked why Howard Lederer and Chris Ferguson were keeping quiet about the many rumors surrounding the Full Tilt Poker site, but according to Matusow this was an expression of Tony G's own industry interests rather than a genuine concern for American poker players.

"Tony G is only out for himself and to boost Party Poker. It's all for his own selfish reasons," Matusow blasted.

"Everything Tony G says is fucking bullshit,” he said. “And I'll be happy to tell it to his face. He came to me yesterday and pretended we were friends. I felt like knocking him out."

There are two very interesting sections of this transcript. The first is a statement of assurance and the second is a statement of feeling about another person. Are these statements true?

        Christopher Dillingham writes in Dissecting Pinocchio how to detect liars. Here’s  a relevant quote from the book.

     

            John E. Reid—a nationally known trainer of law enforcement investigators—teaches them to be immediately suspicious whenever someone says “No, I did not” rather than “No, I didn’t”.

His studies as well as others show that a reliable tell of deception is use of the expanded contraction.

Here is probably the most famous use of the expanded contraction.

“I did not have a sexual relationship with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.”-Bill Clinton

When people speak normally they use contractions. When they lie, they don’t. I apply this same analysis to Mike’s statements. When Mike tells the truth he speaks normally using contractions. When he fabricates he extends the contraction.

Truth

"Tony G is only out for himself and to boost Party Poker. It's all for his own selfish reasons," Matusow blasted.

"Everything Tony G says is fucking bullshit,” he said. “And I'll be happy to tell it to his face. He came to me yesterday and pretended we were friends. I felt like knocking him out."

Fiction

"I am not Joe Sebok. I am completely sure."

If he was telling the truth he would have said, “I’m not Joe Sebok. I’m completely sure.”

If he would have simply spoken normally I would have felt very confident that Matusow was telling the truth.

Of course I know he truthfully isn’t Joe Sebok, but the use of extended contractions applies to brain mode and to the context of the statement. The two statements were conceived together.

Be immediately suspicious of anyone using an extended contraction when making an assurance or a denial. This doesn’t mean that Full tilt players aren't getting their money. What it does mean is that Matusow is being deceptive somehow and if I saw him I 'd let him know I know this to his face. It leads me to believe that Full tilt is operating to payback and leaves me questioning with whether their current costs plus legal fees and diminished player base are going to allow them to be able to payback. I suspect someone put Mike up to making the statement, perhaps because he owes them in some way.

Here are five questions I would ask Lederer and Ferguson if I had significant money in Full Tilt(which I don't).

1. What are the assets that you can sell while still operating?
2. What are the assets that you can sell if shutting down?
3. What are you doing to cut costs right now?
4. What percentage of your wagers(not players) came from the US before black friday?
5. What were your total costs before black Friday?

Technically if this is the situation they are in debt to the players.