NCAA Picks Accuracy(or why I should stick to poker)

My picks(a combo of subjective judgments and possession score)- 32/60- 53%

Sweet sixteen and on I just used possession score for a 2/12 rating = 16.6%

For the record just going with the NCAA ranking would have scored 3/12 = 25%

I only used the picks to enter 2 free yahoo contests so at least I didn't lose anything on them. Some may find this surprising but I dislike gambling unless it is either cheap or  I know that I have an edge. This was a good test of why I should stick to poker.

On a side note I should have a poker article with a significant statistics emphasis coming out in the May issue(should appear on May 1st) of the Two Plus Two internet magazine and then this month I'm going to work on cleaning up the charts and better presenting the energy insulin ratio.

My Final Bracket

 I have a final 4 of Ohio State, Texas, Kansas, and Wisconsin

I could also see Notre Dame, Duke, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Purdue or San Diego State making it but in the end you have to pick one team. I've also compiled a list of the most underrated and overrated teams. Enjoy and good luck!

Underrated    

Belmont    8
- Too bad for them they have to play Wisconsin who is also underrated the first round
Utah State    7
 -Don't know much about them
Clemson    5
 -Bah they already lost
Illinois    4
-they also have to play an underrated team UNLV
Marquette    4
-they'll probably run into a pretty good Syracuse team early
Wisconsin    3
- I think they go furthur than their seed
Washington    3
 - I really like this team. I love Justin Holiday.
Gonzaga    3
 - Does anybody else remember the Gophers cheating scandal and their first big run?
Missouri    3
Texas    2
 -They have to face Duke very early. I think this could be tough as Irving is pretty good.
Kentucky    2
-just squeeked by princeton
George Mason    2
UNLV    1

Overrated

Pittsburgh    -1
-haven't had chance to see them yet
San Diego State    -1
-I think they could go far but they'll have to face either Texas/Duke and I think they lose there
West Virginia    -1
Villanova    -1
Michigan State    -1
North Carolina    -2
-I think Barnes is overrated but I didn't notice that they were playing the game against washington in north carolina. That changes things. Knowing that I'd have picked NC
Florida    -2
-It think they have the easiest draw of any team so I still picked them to advance
Connecticut    -2
Arizona    -2
Williams is good but can his teammates help?
Georgetown    -2
Michigan    -2
Xavier    -3
I think
Temple    -3
Old Dominion    -3
Florida State    -3
UAB    -3
Kansas State    -4
-wrong about this one at the moment. Still time but not loking good
Texas A&M    -4
Butler    -4
-it was close between butler/Old dominion. They were both overrated playing each other
Tennessee    -4
Georgia    -5
St. John's    -7
-losing pretty badly to gonzaga as I write this
UCLA    -8

NCAA Basketball rankings 2011

		POS+PTS/pos score
1	Ohio State	36.72
2	Duke	32.63
3	Kansas	32.26
4	Wisconsin	29.77
5	Pittsburgh	29.39
6	Texas	28.25
7	Notre Dame	28.14
8	Kentucky	27.81
9	Purdue	27.77
10	San Diego State	27.75
11	Brigham Young	26.84
12	Syracuse	25.56
13	North Carolina	24.79
14	Louisville	24.78
15	Washington	24.48
16	Florida	23.79
17	Connecticut	23.7
18	Utah State	22.38
19	Belmont	22.18
20	Illinois	21.33
21	West Virginia	21.23
22	Cincinnati	20.79
23	George Mason	20.09
24	Villanova	19.99
25	UNLV	19.92
26	Arizona	19.81
27	Marquette	19.38
28	Clemson	19.27
29	Vanderbilt	19.11
30	Gonzaga	19.09
31	Missouri	18.88
32	Georgetown	18.63
33	Kansas State	18.42
34	Virginia Tech	18.25
35	Xavier	18.09
36	Maryland	17.91
37	Temple	17.8
38	Michigan	17.39
39	Saint Mary's	17.27
40	Penn State	17.09
41	Texas A&M	16.94
42	New Mexico	16.67
43	Colorado	16.66
44	Michigan State	16.5
45	USC	16.28
46	Richmond	16.23
47	Old Dominion	15.75
48	Butler	15.54
49	Florida State	15.22
50	Washington State	15.07
51	Tennessee	14.88
52	St. John's	14.76
53	Northwestern	14.75
54	Nebraska	14.7
55	Iona	14.41
56	Alabama	14.4
57	UCLA	14.25
58	Georgia	14.06
59	UAB	13.87
60	Wichita State	13.67
61	Minnesota	13.63
62	Seton Hall	13.34
63	Boston College	13.15
64	Duquesne	12.89
65	Oakland	12.65
66	California	11.94
67	Mississippi	11.43
68	Southern Miss	11.36
69	Texas Tech	11.31
70	Cleveland State	11.2
71	Miami (OH)	10.86
72	Boise State	10.46
73	Rutgers	10.44
74	Colorado State	10.41
75	Harvard	10.16
76	Baylor	10.04
77	Iowa State	10.02
78	Missouri State	10.01
79	Oklahoma State	9.8
80	Marshall	9.5

I updated my rankings with new data(as of march 12th) and simplified the model a bit coming up with just one rating that weights a teams points per possession offense and defense differential in addition to the possessions they gain above average, translated back into what an average possession is worth in points. So stated simply the bigger the number you attain the better. I plan to post  my completed bracket later this week along with some thoughts about the coaches ratings vs my ratings and the impact of losses of games versus that of possessions over a season.